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Bill Pitz's avatar

Your cautionary comments about the timing of future events are important to keep in mind as they help to keep us from becoming discouraged when things sometimes (seemingly) go sideways, or even backwards.

That said, I am encouraged that things are moving quickly in a good direction that, someday soon, we will like the way this movie ends.

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A Common Sense American's avatar

Burning Bright,

Your preamble is a masterclass in self-aware analysis—eloquent, humbling, and deeply resonant. It captures the paradox of seeking truth in a war built on lies, and the humility required to keep digging despite inevitable errors. I’m grateful for voices like yours that refuse to conflate certainty with clarity.

That said, I’d offer one refinement to the framework: The closest we get to the actual truth is, well, actuarial. Assign probabilities to claims and various narrative speculations. Verify all known facts, weigh all context and nuance within an actuarial formula, and assign a level or degree of truth to any given speculation. This doesn’t dismiss your narrative approach, but complements it with mathematical calculation: The most rational explanation, given all known inputs, is often likeliest, and beyond that, there is a way to assign a level of probability to all such assumptions.

Trump may know more than most, but treating him as the singular architect of outcomes or knowledge risks replacing one mythos with another. The truth is usually messier—a mosaic of actors, accidents, and asymmetrical power. Let’s keep probing, but with Bayesian rigor: updating degrees of belief as evidence demands, not simply as a myriad of narratives might imply.

Keep fighting the good fight—Love your show on Sunday nights!

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